Analysts: China's robotaxi market to expand by 700-fold over the next decade
By lauraharris // 2025-05-13
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  • Goldman Sachs projects 500,000 autonomous taxis will operate across 10 major Chinese cities by 2030, with revenues skyrocketing from $54 million (2025) to $47 billion by 2035. China's robotaxi market could grow 700-fold in a decade.
  • China aims to mass-produce advanced humanoid robots by 2025, competing with Tesla and Western firms. These robots (with AI "brains" and 44-degree joint mobility) could dominate logistics, healthcare and military roles, potentially creating a $150B annual market by 2040.
  • Firms like Baidu Apollo, Pony.ai, and WeRide are already deploying robotaxis in cities like Beijing and Shanghai. The Chinese government is accelerating regulatory approvals and smart-city infrastructure, outpacing the U.S. in adoption.
  • Each robotaxi could generate $69/day by 2035, outperforming traditional ride-hailing due to 24/7 operation and lower labor costs. Humanoid robots may replace workers in warehousing, fast food and elder care.
  • China is on track to host the world's largest robotaxi fleet (12M vehicles by 2040, per BloombergNEF) and lead in AV revenue ($500B+ by 2030, per McKinsey). Analysts credit China's proactive policies and faster regulatory approvals for its edge over the U.S.
Goldman Sachs analysts have projected that half a million autonomous taxis will operate across 10 major Chinese cities by 2030. According to Goldman Sachs, the robotaxi market of China is set to expand by 700-fold over the next decade. Goldman Sachs analysts project that half a million autonomous taxis will operate across ten major Chinese cities by 2030, with revenues surging from $54 million in 2025 to $47 billion by 2035. Meanwhile, humanoid robots, poised to transform industries from logistics to healthcare, could command a $150 billion annual market by 2040. (Related: Tesla moves a step closer toward its goal of operating a fleet of autonomous robotaxis in California.) Leading the charge are Chinese tech giants Baidu Apollo, Pony.ai and WeRide, which have already deployed robotaxis in cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing. Each robotaxi could generate $69 per day by 2035, outperforming traditional ride-hailing due to 24/7 operation and lower labor costs. Meanwhile, China is racing Western competitors like Tesla in the humanoid robotics sector. The government aims to mass-produce advanced humanoid robots by 2025, with full-scale deployment in manufacturing, healthcare and military roles by 2027. These robots, featuring AI-driven "brains" and 44 degrees of joint movement, could soon replace human workers in warehousing, fast food and elder care. Goldman Sachs estimates the market could hit $150 billion annually within 15 years, as China and global tech firms vie for dominance. "We see Robotaxis as one of the earliest and most visible avenues to commercialization of the autonomous technology, with growing consumer acceptance across large Tier 1 cities, a tightening supply of human drivers as the fleets mature and drivers retire, and with government and insurance industry as enablers to support growth," Goldman analysts Allen Chang, Verena Jeng and others wrote in a note on Tuesday, May 6.

China is on track to host the world's largest robotaxi fleet

The Goldman Sachs analysts' projection aligns with other 2024 predictions for China. According to a forecast by global consulting firm McKinsey & Company, revenue from autonomous vehicles and mobility services in China is expected to surpass $500 billion by the end of the decade. While the U.S. has been cautious in approving unmanned robotaxis, China has accelerated its regulatory approvals, granting permits at a much faster pace. "We've seen an acceleration in China. There's certainly now a rapid pace of permits being issued," said Boston Consulting Group Managing Director Augustin Wegscheider. "The U.S. has been a lot more gradual." Similarly, a 2024 BloombergNEF report projected that by 2040, China will operate the world's largest robotaxi fleet, with an estimated 12 million self-driving vehicles, dwarfing the U.S. forecast of 7 million. Li Hengyu, the vice president of Pony.ai, a leading Chinese autonomous driving firm, praised the government's proactive stance: "The central and local governments in China rank first in the world in terms of their openness and understanding of autonomous driving." Moreover, China is advancing smart city infrastructure, integrating vehicles, roads and cloud computing to create a seamless ecosystem. In fact, five ministries, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, designated 20 cities and city clusters – including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou – as pilot zones for autonomous driving technology in July 2024. Visit RoboCars.news for more news on electric vehicles. Watch as Yuval Noah Harari and Elon Musk discuss self-driving cars.
This video is from the Thrivetime Show channel on Brighteon.com.

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Sources include: ZeroHedge.com ChinaDaily.com Brighteon.com
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